Just Another Blog

Friday, October 3, 2008

stark similarity between Indus valley and ancient hebrew script

The similarity is so sharp that I'm forced to believe that both scripts are sister scripts or something like that.
For the first time, I feel that we are very near to understand the roots of Indus valley civilization.

Indus valley civilization according to mahabharata was kingdom of sindhu, kekaya, gandhara, amvastha,sivi and kamboja ; mesopotamia was pahlava[1]. They have mentioned been as Udichya. Also, there has been the mention of destruction of vrishni and andhaka clans by some natural force or by a nuclear bomb[4].

The 'rann of kutch' tells some story as well. The marshy salty lands suggest that seawater once intruded the mainlands of this area.

This is about history.

When we consider indian mythology, a new aspect comes under picture.Now, sage 'vashishtha' was the guru of solar dynasty and also the guru of Rama. The solar dynastry inclcuded kekeyya, pahalava and others. Vashishtha has a cow called 'kamdhenu' which was considered extremely sacred and extremely powerful. Another cow like goddess was worshipped by Egyptian called 'Haroth' which symbolises. It is important to note that 'vashistha' emphasized in one God (Brahma) when he taught his principles to Rama.

Now, why I'm discussing cow. Is it related to religion?

No. Cow is the first alphabet of both in hebrew and indus valley civilization.

Hebrew

אָ

Indus valley

(head of) cow

a (+-tu)

possessive suffix

the similarity doesn't end here. The indus script was written from right to left as it is the case with hebrew or arabic.
One more characters is important.
Hebrew

שׁ

Indus valley

the symbol of great lord is nothing but trident, shinkal or trishul and the lord Shiv, sulin, sh..

notably, the fire is a symbol which can be easily understood.

אֵשׁ

eysh

Fire

fire a symbol of shiva

אִשֶּׁה

ee-sheh

Fire offering

Now, the all powerful lord symbol has appeared and the man is lying on the ground.

So, man symbol is pronounced ee which is deviation from already known pronunication 'al/an'

man

man, servant

the lord is shih or shah.. shah is the title of lord. or king in mesopotamia.

All these similarities and historical reference of Abraham coming from Far East forces us to believe that Jews are descendant of survived races before great destruction of Mahabharata.
This open a new hope to understand the ancient indus valley scripts which was earlier non-decipherable.

I suggest further similarities should be correlated and we will have indus valley script completely deciphered.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e4/EpicIndia.jpg
http://www.harappa.com/arrow/Nilakantha-IM.pdf
http://www.ancient-hebrew.org/35_dictionary_01.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vrishni

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Watching Chandler's wobble

At the end of 2006, our Earth stopped wobbling for few weeks. Many doom predictors called it the end of the world. However, Earth started wobbling again and everything seems to be normal now.

However, I would like to have watch this wobbling called Chandler's wobble. Earth wobbles as it spins around the axis. There were many speculations of the origin of this wobble, but finally it was concluded that this wobble is due to movements of zillions of gallons of sea water in the form of currents.

The mean pole has shifted only 0.1 sec in the past 30 years. If it continues with the same pace, it would take about 18,000 years to tilt by one more degree and nearly million years to reach to equator.

However, any small activity inside the earth can simply lead to domino effect leading to big catastrophe. I'll watch till 2012. If the pole returns to it's mean position by 2013, then everything is fine and stop listening to doom predictors.

If it doesn't, you know what you have to do.

Friday, May 16, 2008

The Tiller maker

About 20 centuries ago, there was a tiller maker called Eli in a small town. He made the finest tiller in the town and nobody knew, how it was made. He vowed all his workers to secrecy, payed them heavy wages, and hired anyone who comes to know anything new about metallurgy. He ventured into other crafts like pottery, furnitures,weapon forging, etc. Even, the sultan bought all the weapnory from him.

Everyone bought his tillers as it never rusted, lasted longer, were light and very easy to use.
He sold tillers at the appropriate price and made sure, every farmer can afford to buy it. His Tiller was just what any farmer would require. There were other tiller makers who sold less tillers than Eli. Their tillers were priced exorbitantly because their tillers were complex or heavily ornamental.

It is no wonder that he became the richest man in the area. But soon, people started hating him for the opulence, he gathered around him. Other tiller makers shared their knowledge with each other, but the rich guy, Eli never shared with anyone.

One day, Greedius, a roman rich-man came to the town and saw people hate Eli. He was an entertainer. He owned various amphitheatres in Roman cities and was in desperate need of gladiators who can fight for him, and give their lives killing each other.

He started distributing limited tillers for free. People still used the tiller made by Eli . Eli rubbished the free tiller by Greedius as useless tool. Suddenly, farmers who were not knowing about free tiller came to knew about it.
Greedius came up with a new scheme that he will give cereals of sicily for free who ever used his tiller. Now, farmers and other towners started using Greedius tiller and cereals too. In return, he asked them to act in their play in his amphitheatre. Eli also started to give cereals for free. Some people left to roman citites while many remained.

Greedius started labeling Eli as "Evil" who want all the wealth for himself. Other tiller makers and artisans agreed with him. Eli felt cornered but he was also a rich man, infact richest man in the town, possibly the richest man after sultan.

After an year, there was serious drought in the kingdom and famine was unevitable. Greedius started providing free food for everyone hungry in the town. While Eli secretly donated to poor, Greedius showed to everyone that he is an altruist.

The towners who came from roman cities told them about huge buildings, luxurious life and ample amount of food. Thousands of People left to roman cities.

Within a month, he had about 10,000 mens, womens and children to run his entertainment business. He employed mens as gladiators; womens and childrens as slaves. Greedius left the town and never came back.

It was too late for Eli to save the people of town. He was not able to grasp the real intention of Greedius and competed with him foolishly. Other tiller makers realized their mistake. Many joined Greedius sinister scheme and started using their own people as slaves.

Sultan was angry on Eli and blamed him for exodus of his people. The treasury of the kingdom was decreasing day by day, and it was very difficult for him to maintain his army. Eli was imprisoned for betrayal to the kingdom and for amassing huge wealth but he was soon released, as many people come forward to support his genorous deeds.

Soon, Romans came marching in, and Greedius, now a senator was commanding the army. This time, Eli made no mistakes. He made the best of weapons for Sultan. He understood Greedius plan but it was too late. The sultan was defeated and beheaded. Eli was charged for scheming against Roman Empire but later freed as Greedius pardoned him.

Greedius smiled on him cunningly and said, "It would have been impossible to conquer your kingdom if you haven't been here !"

Friday, April 11, 2008

Analysis of Trends in Indian Telecom Market

Objective

The motive is to understand the Indian telecom market requirements in terms of infrastructure and services. This report will investigate what challenges it faces, what kind of solutions is viable for it and some future trends.

Trends

The trend in telecom growth market of India is exponential and it is increasing by leaps and bounds. There are about 184 million mobile GSM users in India ^[1]. There are about other 60 million CDMA phone users ^[2] and nearly 39.18 million fixed telephone users^[4] adding the number making a total of 290 million users^[3].

Source: COAI

Within a week, India will replace US, the second largest wireless network market after China. We have also noticed a decline in fixed telephone subscribers from 49 million^[5] to 39 million from Jan 2006 to Feb 2008.

The total number of telephone connections hit 290.11 million at the end of February 2008 as compared to 281.62 million in January 2008, taking the overall teledensity to 25.31% at the end of February 2008 as against 24.63% in January 2008^[4].

We’ve also noticed a decline in SMS revenues by 10% which is a good signature of ARPU. An interesting trend which can’t be ignored in monthly increase in number of GSM subscribers witnesses a drop in March every year. The only possible reason I can think is Fiscal Budget which forces customers to switch plans and spend frugally.

When major players of Indian telecom market are compared, Bharti Telecom clearly comes out as clear leader followed by Reliance leading Vodafone Essar marginally.

Source: TRAI Press Release Feb 2008

Low ARPU, Low Quality, Increasing user base, High AMPU

Retaining the customer satisfaction would be a difficult task. A recent survey shows only three players show the positive trend in customer satisfaction and are able to satisfy TRAI norms ^[6]. BPL, MTNL and Aircel out of which, Aircel is the only major player with 10 million users.

However, in metros, where the ARPU is generally more, Bharti Airtel performs better, satisfying nearly 91.5% of its customers^[6]. MTNL, which is a one of the major player in Metros, has witnessed a higher ARPU, though their customer base has been hit badly in Delhi^[8]. Retaining customer with higher ARPU is the key to high-ARPU story of MTNL. It must be noted that MTNL was the first telecom player to start IPTV service.

ARPU of major telecom players are less than 10$ and has declined in recent past. Sometimes, ARPU can be misleading in deciding the profits made. It has been found that telcos are increasing margins despite low ARPU by expending less on every user. Average Margin per user or AMPU can be either negative or positive and, therefore, low-ARPU need not preclude a positive AMPU. Greater the AMPU, the greater the profit and the enhancement of shareholder value.^[7]

But when the market saturates, ARPU will again re-appear in statistics. The customer will demand better quality in service and overall satisfaction. With increasing GDP and expenditure power, the customer will move to the service provider who provides the best ‘quality of service’. Marginalizing the quality to generate more AMPU will be unconstructive and will have a negative impact in overall revenue.

International players

With the entry of International players, it is expected that quality and user satisfaction will go up. Major global players like Vodafone and Virgin has already made foray in Indian telecom market by either purchasing stake in existing telecom players or by clubbing with them.

When AT & T sold 1/3^rd stake of Idea Mobile in 2005, India was a small market but now it is clearly evident it was a bad decision. Today, Indian telecom market has an increasing user base and with it, there is a chance of making a big fortune.

Predictions

If the growth momentum is expected to continue, there will be four players to cross 50 million by the end of 2008. The annual growth of these companies would be around 20-30%. Bharti Airtel shall rule the roost with 86 million subscribers by the end of Nov, 2008.

Since all major players are now engaged in increasing customer base and providing new value-added service to their customers; sooner or later, the market will stagnate. As per calculations, the market will start stagnating by the end of 2010. In 2009, 190 million new subscribers will be added in 2010; 230 million subscribers will be added. At the end of 2010, India shall have a customer base of 730 million for wireless phone. After that, the momentum of growth will fall rapidly as mobile customers will reach nearly to 80% of subscribers who are above poverty line. Then, subscriber growth rate will be 4% or 5% above the population growth rate of India, i.e. 6% to 7% annually.

From beginning of 2010, telecom companies would be providing 3G services in Tier-II and Tier-III cities. By the end of 2010, 4G shall be available in Tier-I or metro cities.With the increase in various kind of services, a myriad combinations of various services packaged into various offers will be provided to customers.

Indian telecom companies would require new wireless technologies like WiMAX and MIMO to serve their urban tech-savvy customers. EDGE and 3G might not satisfy them. Companies like DoCoMo, Sprint and AT&T might enter into Indian telecom market.

Advance billing applications which can cater to demands and requirements of various customers would be required.

After mid-2010s, we shall witness consolidation in Telecom industries to increase subscriber base. Various content-based services will become popular which will eventually lead to increase in ARPU as well.

Demographics

Population of India by 2010: 1.2 billion

People in Metros: 100 million

Will access 4G services with various content services. ARPU will rise substantially. Triple-play will be in vogue.

People in Tier-II or Tier-III cities: 400 million

Will access 3G services with various content services. ARPU is likely to rise substantially. Triple play will appear.

Any company who is in telecom domain and provides infrastructure and services to Telcos should chalk out their strategies by the end of mid-2008. All major Telcos are spending huge chunks of money in building undersea cables, expanding their network coverage to distant and remote areas where fixed –line will never reach , and announcing their intentions of triple-play or quadruple-play, which is currently being hampered by sluggish regulatory proceedings.

Where Major Telco stand in Indian Telecom Market

Bharti Airtel

Bharti Airtel is clearly a customer which will have a huge appetite. Bharti Airtel has already clubbed with BlackBerry to provide their urban customers, a plethora of data services. It has also planned to invest in 3.5billion $ in network expansion. However, ARPU was as low as 406 Rs at Mar 2007. Nearly, 80% of customers or more uses Airtel’s prepaid services. So, ARPU is going to be low for quite a sometime. With the revenue of 4.47 Billion$^[13] and highest wireless subscriber base, Airtel is destined to be the leader in wireless segment.

Reliance Telecom

Reliance Telecom is a part of Reliance-ADAG group, which is one of the largest companies in India. It also ventures into other sectors like Energy, Capital and Insurance. Reliance Infocomm have fiber-optic backbone of 60,000 km^[11]. Further, it is the largest CDMA player and much better positioned than Airtel to provide 3G and 4G services. Recently, Reliance announced its intention to launch IPTV by this year^[12]. With the revenue of 4 billion US $ and above-average ARPU, Reliance Telecom in the long run will have higher revenue than Bharti Airtel.

Vodafone Essar

Vodafone, a telco giant of Europe purchased Hutchisson Whampoa shares in Hutch Essar. Hutch was an established brand name with “catchy” emotional advertisements and served urban customers. However, Vodafone has decided to expand it everywhere. Vodafone, Airtel and idea joined hands to share towers. Essar, also a shipping and petroleum company has a major role in developing the idea of “tower sharing”.^[10]

Idea Cellular

Idea is majorly targeting post-paid connections. Idea Cellular is set to extend its network to cover 3,000 towns and 30,000 villages in the country by the end of the year. It will be investing 2 billion $ in infrastructure alone by the end of this year. Idea cellular is a part of Indian giant, Aditya Birla Group. This group is one of the oldest business houses in India and deals in almost everything u can imagine from cement, textile, metals to insurance, finance with overall revenue more than 24 billion $. Surely, it has a huge backing and cannot be ruled out as a major player.

Tata Indicom

Though Tata is now known worldwide for innovative 1 Rs. Lakh car, but Tata also deals in telecom. Again, Tata is one of the big business houses in India. Tata is seriously trying to push its ARPU. Recently, it rolled out plans to pay customers if they are not satisfied with quality of service. It joined hands with Virgin Mobile which will completely change the dynamics of the market. It is already far-ahead than the rest of the companies for triple-play with Tata Sky, the biggest DTH service provider. Tata has everything to build a biggest telecom network from Steel for towers to billing software from TCS, India’s largest software company. VSNL, a subsidiary purchased from the government saw an increase in revenue by staggering 84% to nearly 2.2 Billion US $^[13].

BSNL, MTNL, a.k.a Indian Government

Yes, Indian government with its public sector enterprise is the backbone of Indian telecom industry. BSNL subscriber’s figure when added with fixed landline figures add up to whopping 64.8 million customers back in March 2007. However, BSNL is losing the lead in urban areas. MTNL revenues declined by 11.5%^[13]. BSNL’s current strategy is to increase its broadband customers by leaps and bounds. 2 MB/s broadband service is being provided by BSNL at a cost of just US$ 5.5 per month. The revenue of BSNL is about 9.7 Billion US $^[13]. It also launched an online gaming service to cash on the rising craze of online gaming. BSNL is the chief telecom provider in rural areas. BSNL actions, though appears to be philanthropic rather than profit making, BSNL is clearly set to be the biggest telecom player and will make mad cash with its broadband service. It will have a monopoly in data services almost impossible to break by any telecom giant.

References